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1. Title: Agricultural Efficiency Gains and Trade Liberalization in Sudan
Authors: Siddig, Khalid H.A. and Babiker, Babiker Idris
Emails: khalidhasiddig@yahoo.com and babikeridris@hotmail.com
Keywords: Agricultural efficiency, liberalization, Sudan SAM, CGE analysis
JEL Codes: D2 D5 D6 E1 E2 F1 F2 H2
Issue Date: 10.08.2011
Series no.: Agricultural Economics Working Paper Series 1 (2011)
Abstract:
The traditional agriculture in Sudan occupies 60% of the total cultivated land and employs 65% of the agricultural population. Nevertheless, it is characterized by its low crop productivity, which is mainly driven by low technical efficiency, while drought and civil conflicts threaten most of its areas countrywide. Therefore, it has contributed only an average of 16% to the total agricultural GDP during the last decade. This paper addresses from an empirical point of view the sectoral and macroeconomic implications of agricultural efficiency improvement in Sudan and assesses the efficiency gains under the assumption of trade liberalization. Efficiency improvement experiments are implemented by augmenting the efficiency parameters of labor, capital, and land in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework. The CGE model of the study relies on the newly produced Sudanese Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), which provides data on 10 agricultural sectors, 10 industrial sectors and 13 service sectors. Results show that improving the agricultural efficiency would lead to improvements in GDP, welfare level, and trade balance. In addition it would also improve the output and competitiveness of the Sudanese agricultural exports and increase their strength to face the challenges of liberalization.
Authors: Siddig, Khalid H.A.
Email: khalidhasiddig@yahoo.com
Keywords: devaluation, Sudan, CGE analysis, inflation, Sudanese pound
JEL Codes: A1 C6 C8 D1 D5 D6 E6 F1 H3.
Issue Date: 2011-08
Series no.: Agricultural Economics Working Paper Series No. 2 (2011)
Abstract:
The international Monitory Fund (IMF) has been working with Sudan since 1997 to implement macroeconomic reforms including a managed float of the exchange rate (EXR). The IMF sees the EXR flexibility as key to safeguard and rebuild foreign exchange reserves and essential to meet the international reserve target in Sudan. However, the authorities in Sudan are concerned that greater exchange rate flexibility could contribute to inflationary pressures. In addition, a review of literature focusing on the exchange rate policies in Sudan reflects huge ambiguity about its outcome. This calls for additional empirical investigations that provide economy wide assessments of the various possible scenarios that could be adopted in the Sudanese context. Accordingly, the current paper applies an economy-wide impact assessment tool to investigate the possible effects of devaluating the overvalued (according to the IMF, 2009) Sudanese pound. Namely, it uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model together with its detailed database of Sudan to simulate the Sudanese pound to depreciate according to three different scenarios by 5%, 10%, and 15%. Results of the paper recommend that the additional flexibility in the Sudanese EXR regime suggested by the IMF should be carefully considered if that would lead the value of the Sudanese currency to be devalued. This imply that the authorities in Sudan should closely monitor and control the EXR to avoid its depreciation in the short run, while encouraging both public and private investments to help creating additional jobs that increases domestic income and reduces the negative consequences of inflation.
